Monday, June 27, 2011
It's always good news when a major national blog (Instapundit) highlights research from a fellow FSU faculty member. And, by the way, were you aware that tropical storm/hurricane activity has been at recent historically low levels in the past few years? (Just as a word of warning, go back to the mid 1980s and observe that it was also in a period of low hurricane activity. It was in that "low" period that Tallahassee last got slammed by a major hurricane.) So if you standing at Spot X on the Gulf or Atlantic coast, the "average" level of activity may not be much comfort to you if the one storm that hits the U.S. that year is heading in your direction! (For that matter, my wife and I survived the 1983 tropical storm that came up the Gulf of California and rained destruction on Tucson, Arizona). In economics it's called not confusing ex ante expectations with ex post realizations.